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5/28/2019 3:18 pm  #1


Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/13/politics/trump-impeachment-democrats-thinking/index.html


Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN Updated 7:25 AM ET, Mon May 13, 2019


(CNN)It seems a crazy idea that any president would actually want to be impeached.
 But Donald Trump has so subverted Washington logic with his wild, norm-crushing presidency that there is now a serious conversation -- at least among Democrats -- about whether he views the ultimate constitutional crisis as a weapon in his re-election campaign.


 The possibility is shaping the strategies of Democratic leaders as they weigh the political risks of impeachment and their duty to defend principles of American governance.


 Many Democrats fear that Trump may be laying an impeachment trap that could consume the House majority, distract them from key issues like health care and alienate persuadable voters.
   



But it's also possible their leaders could be talking up the idea that Trump wants to be impeached as a way to quell discontent among some base activists that Washington Democrats are not doing more to constrain the President. 


 The question is not going away, given Trump's staggeringly broad effort to subvert investigations of his presidency, campaign, personal finances and business career.


 "The President is almost self-impeaching because he is, every day, demonstrating more obstruction of justice and disrespect for Congress' legitimate role to subpoena," Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Friday.One of Pelosi's top lieutenants, House Intelligence Committee chairman Adam Schiff, is, like Pelosi, wary of the risks of impeachment. But he acknowledged Trump's own actions might be propelling Washington toward a precipice.


 "Part of our reluctance is we are already a bitterly divided country and an impeachment process will divide us further," Schiff said Sunday on "This Week" on ABC News. "He certainly seems to be trying and maybe this is his perverse way of dividing us more ... He thinks that's to his political advantage, but it's certainly not to the country's advantage."


 Trump dodged a question in a Politico interview last week about whether he wanted to be impeached. And he argues that if anyone committed crimes over the 2016 campaign, it is Democrats, not him.


 At other times he has, however, seemed to be testing out arguments that he could use in his defense in an impeachment showdown.


 "It's hard to impeach somebody who hasn't done anything wrong and who's created the greatest economy in the history of our country," Trump told Reuters in an interview in December.


 "I'm not concerned, no. I think that the people would revolt if that happened," he said.


 Trump has unapologetically based his political appeal on widening national divides -- so he is unlikely to worry about exacerbating them if it benefits him politically. And like everyone else, he reads polls that show that most Americans do not want to go through the trauma of an impeachment drama for the third time in 50 years.



 It's possible that the wider political divides get, the more Trump benefits. The spectacle would help him charge up the political base he needs to turn out in droves in 2020 with claims their 2016 votes were being stolen by political elites.


 Trump would also hope to turn more moderate voters against the Democrats by painting their efforts as cravenly partisan political overreach.


 Trump's corrosive coup narrative


 A Democratic effort to oust Trump would bolster his narrative that his opponents have long been bent on a coup to oust him.


 This idea seemed to animate the President during a weekend of epic tweeting and retweeting.


 "From long before I ever took office, I was under a sick & unlawful investigation concerning what has become known as the Russian hoax," Trump wrote on Sunday.


 "My campaign was being seriously spied upon by intel agencies and the Democrats. This never happened before in American history, and it all turned out to be a total scam, a Witch Hunt, that yielded No Collusion, No Obstruction. This must never be allowed to happen again!"


 While special counsel Robert Mueller did not establish a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russia, he did show repeated contacts between Moscow's meddling operation and the GOP nominee's team.


 There is also plentiful evidence of obstruction of justice -- that more than 800 former federal prosecutors now say would have been sufficient to prosecute Trump were he a private citizen.


 Suspicions that Trump may perversely see an upside to impeachment are supported by a simple fact: It is very unlikely to force him from office.


 He has proven that there are almost no circumstances in which a two-thirds Senate super majority swelled by defecting Republicans would vote to convict him in an impeachment trial.


 Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell -- building on a political narrative sketched by Attorney General William Barr -- is framing the end of the special counsel investigation as "case closed."


 Much Democratic reticence about impeachment is shaped by a certain reading of the history of the Bill Clinton era.In midterm elections in 1998 that took place after Republicans had initiated the impeachment process, Democrats actually picked up House seats in a reverse of historical trends. The result has been read ever since as a judgment by voters to rebuke Republicans who sought unsuccessfully to oust a twice-elected President.


 Some Democrats fear that an impeachment process now could play into the current President's hands and allow him to rally the country against them.


 It is not often remembered, however, that Republicans went on to win the presidency less than two years after Clinton survived his Senate trial -- after a campaign in which George W. Bush promised to restore "honor and dignity" to the White House in an oblique reference to impeachment.


 White House insists that it's Democrats who are overreaching
 

Despite the Democratic House majority's wariness about impeachment, the possibility seems more likely than ever.The White House is insisting its resistance to Democratic power is legitimate.


 "There are rules and norms governing congressional oversight of the executive branch, and the Democrats simply refuse to abide by them," White House spokesman Steve Groves said in a statement Sunday.


  


"Democrats are demanding documents they know they have no legal right to see -- including confidential communications between the president and foreign leaders and grand jury information that cannot be disclosed under the law."


 Trump is ordering current and former officials to ignore subpoenas. He is refusing to turn over documents and personal files like his tax returns.


 And he has even taken personal legal action against a congressional committee to keep his financial records private.


 The President is also making what appears to be extreme claims of executive privilege.


 The crisis may not be far away


 Despite this obstruction, the nation is not yet in a constitutional crisis. But the moment may not be far away.Many disputes between the White House and Congress are now likely to churn through the court system and could even rise to the Supreme Court.


 If the White House were to refuse a Court order to honor subpoenas, the Democratic House majority, having exhausted lesser powers to hold a President to account, may have no option but to proceed to impeachment to preserve the integrity of Congress itself.


 That possibility may have been in Pelosi's mind when she was talking about "self-impeachment."


 The hope of Democrats would be that after methodically working through the process of trying to constrain a President, the public at that point would be less likely to react negatively to the initiation of impeachment proceedings.


 The party is already trying to build a case of administration-wide malfeasance and obstruction that could shape public perceptions about the Trump presidency.


 There is now talk of "bundling" several contempt of Congress citations for top Cabinet officials in one House vote to maximize the political fallout for the administration.


 Barr was found to be in contempt last week by the House Judiciary Committee for refusing to hand over an unredacted version of the report from special counsel Robert Mueller. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and IRS Commissioner Charles Rettig could soon face similar censure after being subpoenaed to hand over six years of Trump's tax returns by the House Ways and Means Committee.


 Given America's entrenched polarization, it seems unlikely that views of the President will shift dramatically enough to change the political calculation over impeachment.


 But historians sometimes point out that public opinion became more favorable to the possibility of impeaching President Richard Nixon as his administration's misdeeds were revealed by Senate Watergate hearings chaired by North Carolina Sen. Sam Ervin. In the end, Nixon resigned before he was impeached, a step it is impossible to imagine Trump emulating.


 Some Democrats seem to believe that a concentrated public airing of Trump's behavior, with testimony from central players like Mueller and former White House counsel Don McGahn, could damage the Trump presidency sufficiently to weaken him in 2020.
  


One potential Democratic nominee, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is ready to take on the risks of impeachment.


 "Congress can simply not look the other way. There is no political convenience exception to the Constitution of the United States of America," Warren said in a swing through Ohio on Saturday.
 

 

5/28/2019 11:15 pm  #2


Re: Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

Pros and cons exist for impeachment. 
At this time they offset each other. 

Trump knows it won't pass the Senate. 

But pro impeachment Democrats also know hearings will bring all Trump troubles into the spotlight, and closer to election this can be pushed, the greater damage to Trump AND the Senate who protects him will be. 

There is no rush to do this. Trump is lamed. Nothing will get through the House for his signature. 


You can look away from a painting, but you can't listen away from a symphony
 

5/29/2019 2:11 pm  #3


Re: Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

I think the latest comments by Mueller, supporting the fact that his Report provides evidence for impeachment but indicating that was not his job, has fired up a few more Democrats who are going to move to do the right thing and impeach this President.

Dems need to stop huddling around and wondering what to do, and do the RIGHT thing.  Is it the most politically expedient thing?  Perhaps not.  But how much longer can we worry about expediency while this criminal tears the country apart?

Dems need to move forward.  Don't overthink - or overcalculate - this.

Last edited by greenman (5/29/2019 3:02 pm)


greenman
 

5/29/2019 2:30 pm  #4


Re: Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

I reiterate my earlier advice to Democrats.
Impeach cleanly. Don't make it personal. Do it dispassionately, concentrating on abuses of power and criminal acts. Don't allow the president to turn it into a circus. Don't try to stretch it out. Don't milk it for political power. Do it, and do it quickly and efficiently.

Let the people see the evidence, and let them see who continues to cover for the president. You already know that the Senate is unlikely to follow through. But you also increasingly understand that not impeaching Trump carries a lot of negative consequences for the future. So, consider all that together and do the only thing you can. Impeach with full knowledge that Republicans will be the craven cowards they will be.

Do it so that the people understand it was done for the good of the nation, NOT the Democratic Party. And then move on.
But you can't just let this go unanswered. Justin Amash (a Republican!) said as much.

Amadeus


 

5/29/2019 3:23 pm  #5


Re: Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

Congress has another option:
Investigate and bring evidence into the open,
then censure. 


You can look away from a painting, but you can't listen away from a symphony
 

5/29/2019 6:41 pm  #6


Re: Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

Censure?  Not impeachment ?? 

     Thread Starter
 

5/29/2019 6:57 pm  #7


Re: Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

Censure used to have a meaning, but I'm not sure it still does; I'm CERTAIN it has no meaning to Trump, who would just laugh it off and mock Democrats further.

It's a serious condemnation where gentlemen were concerned.  No gentlemen left to speak of...

Last edited by greenman (5/29/2019 6:58 pm)


greenman
 

5/29/2019 11:17 pm  #8


Re: Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

Siagiah wrote:

Censure?  Not impeachment ?? 

When Newt Gingrich was censured, he was so outraged and offended, he resigned. 
Censure means made irrelevant. Democrats can do to him what Mitch McConnell did to Merrick Garland. 
Completely shut down any Trump agenda, and refuse to even listen to him until a new president is elected. 
It is another option, and unlike impeachment which won't pass the Senate, where Trump can lie victory, censure will deny Trump that platform. 

 


You can look away from a painting, but you can't listen away from a symphony
 

5/29/2019 11:23 pm  #9


Re: Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

I get the clear and distinct feeling if modern Republicans could talk with George Washington, they'd likely tell Grandpa to calm down, sit down and take a nap; they have work to do. 


You can look away from a painting, but you can't listen away from a symphony
 

5/29/2019 11:28 pm  #10


Re: Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

greenman wrote:

Censure used to have a meaning, but I'm not sure it still does; I'm CERTAIN it has no meaning to Trump, who would just laugh it off and mock Democrats further.

It's a serious condemnation where gentlemen were concerned.  No gentlemen left to speak of...

Investigation path to censure is the same as for impeachment. All Trump's crimes will be brought out and proven. This can last right up until the election. If new discovery is found, that can be added in, and censure can also lead to impeachment. 
 


You can look away from a painting, but you can't listen away from a symphony
 

5/30/2019 8:27 am  #11


Re: Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

Then  CENSURE it is.  That could work.

     Thread Starter
 

5/30/2019 2:06 pm  #12


Re: Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

I'm not sure censure has any meaning outside of Congress.
Amadeus


 

5/30/2019 5:02 pm  #13


Re: Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

Amadeus wrote:

I'm not sure censure has any meaning outside of Congress.
Amadeus

Maybe not, but if it results in lots of noise and investigation that the public would see, hear, and read about, then it could do the same job as impeachment by the house that would be refused by the senate.  I think that's the thinking behind censure vs impeachment
 

     Thread Starter
 

5/30/2019 11:10 pm  #14


Re: Many Democrats fear Trump is laying an impeachment trap

Siagiah wrote:

Amadeus wrote:

I'm not sure censure has any meaning outside of Congress.
Amadeus

Maybe not, but if it results in lots of noise and investigation that the public would see, hear, and read about, then it could do the same job as impeachment by the house that would be refused by the senate.  I think that's the thinking behind censure vs impeachment
 

It would be similar to what McConnell did to Merrick Garland too. No movement until a new president is elected. If enough Trump crimes can be uncovered so Trump supporting GOP Senators are threatened with removal by their constituencies, then censure could move into impeachment, trial, conviction, and removal from office. 

Pence would be a lame duck because he went along with everything Trump did. 

The House must do something decisive and effective. The new blood surging in unanimously wants to impeach, and they were elected to do that. It reflects a national understanding about Trump. But the Senate is defiant and will protect Trump no matter what, solely for partisan power reasons. Many Senators, owned by the "preachers" or preachers themselves, believe they act in the will of God, and they won't compromise. 

Trump can and will claim complete exoneration. But more importantly having had a trial in the Senate, he CAN'T be tried again once he leaves office. Meaning what ever crimes he committed, he gets away with. He uses double jeopardy to once again, escape justice. 

IMO, every Republican who puts party and power over the Constitution to protect this president needs to be removed from office as well. But many live in Bible belt states where Bible thumper constituents are happy with their godly and divine defiance. Many take Trump's crimes and pin them on the Democrats. They want Comey, Clinton, Strzok, Clapper, Brennan, and Obama not just tried, but jailed. How do you fight that kind of ignorance and superstition?

Last night I made a discovery. A troll wrote a pro-Trump, anti-Mueller post that contained words written and spelled like a Russian would likely use. You know how the written word is a window into the mind? This was very clearly written by a Russian who spoke English well. It might have gone unnoticed, but for the peculiar "Russian" spelling of the word. I noticed it because of the many Russians I know, and that I speak Russian as well. One word in question was "indicted."  The "c" was absent. Then as I looked at other words in posts from this troll, silent English letters were uniformly always missing, and missing in the same way. Something peculiar and unique to the way Russians who speak English, write. 

I am convinced I saw an example of Russian presence in American social media stirring the pot for Trump and against his enemies. Mueller was viciously attacked, If what I saw is correct, and I believe it is, not only is the attack at it again, and perhaps never abated, but it is more widespread than anyone can imagine. It capitalizes on American illiteracy. You see the incredibly poor command so many Americans write with every day. Trump is one of them. Look at his command of English in his tweets! 

He and his administration persist in ignoring warnings from the US intelligence community, and Trump himself said he believes Putin.  Absolutely he must be removed from office. So must Pence, and that is another trouble. 

This is a bonafide Constitutional crisis. 

 


You can look away from a painting, but you can't listen away from a symphony
 

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