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5/16/2019 7:10 pm  #1


tRUMP's trade war with China... Should we be worried ??

He's started way too many trade wars.  It's NUTS !!

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48290733


US-China trade war: What is President Trump's strategy?
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By Karishma Vaswani Asia business correspondent   May 16, 2019


                    Image copyright Getty Images

Donald Trump's book The Art of the Deal could give you some insight into how he is negotiating with China amid the current trade war.

 One of his business philosophies is called negative thinking - anticipating the worst outcome, and preparing for it. 

"I always go into the deal anticipating the worst," he writes. "If you plan for the worst - if you can live with the worst - the good will always take care of itself."

 But is the US really prepared for the absolute worst China could do?

 In a clip from China Central Television, that's now gone viral on Chinese social media, anti-US sentiment appears to be at a peak.

  "China is not willing, but not afraid, to fight", says the presenter. "After 5,000 years of winds and storms - what kind of hardship has the great Chinese nation not weathered?"

 Looking even further back in China's history, perhaps Beijing is taking a page out of China's ancient strategic manual The Art of War.

 As author Sun Tzu advises: "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him".

 Here's what could China do to "irritate" President Trump's arguably "choleric temperament" in this trade war.


Sell US government bonds 

China is the biggest foreign holder of US government bonds, known as Treasuries, but in March stepped up its sale of these bonds to the quickest pace in two and a half years - according to data from the US Treasury department.

 And Beijing could keep doing this - although it would come at a cost.

 Hu Xijin, editor in chief of the Global Times which is published by the Communist Party's official mouthpiece the People's Daily, has tweeted: "China may stop purchasing US agricultural products and energy, reduce Boeing orders and restrict US service trade with China. Many Chinese scholars are discussing the possibility of dumping US Treasuries and how to do it specifically."

 But analysts say doing that would actually hurt China more.

 In simple terms, if Beijing sold US Treasuries then it would drive down the US dollar - and that could potentially destabilize the US economy.

 But that wouldn't be good for China in the long term. It needs a stable global economy as its economy weakens - so hurting the US in this way would, in effect, hurt China too.

 Selling US Treasuries would also devalue China's holdings - effectively becoming an own goal.

 Weaken the value of the yuan

China's currency is controlled, which means it's not freely traded. The central bank guides where the midpoint of the currency should be and then it trades within a narrow band around that midpoint.

 It has already lowered it in recent days, which analysts say is a signal to the market that China is willing to use the currency as a tool to offset the impact of US tariffs.

 Image copyright Getty Images

The weaker the Chinese currency, the less expensive its goods are in the US. In theory, this means more people will buy them, and Chinese companies won't suffer as much.

 But the downside is that China's imports will become more expensive too - which will affect goods such as oil, and other raw materials that it needs to keep its economy chugging along. It's a delicate balance - and a tough position to be in.

 Clamp down on foreign investment

This is one area where China could really tighten the screws on the US.

 Foreign direct investment (FDI) has been a key factor driving China's economic growth - and it's also reaped dividends for the foreign companies investing in China, despite the challenging business environment.

 However, Beijing could decide to make the environment even tougher.

 In 2018, China was the second largest recipient of FDI in the world and a large chunk of that money came from the US, even as the trade war between the two intensified.

 However, according to reports, China's National Development and Reform Council - the country's central planning agency has taken over the responsibility of deciding who will be allowed to invest in the country based on national security criteria.

 That's an important move, because now the council is the equivalent in some respects of the Committee for Foreign Investment in the United States, (CFIUS) - the entity tasked with evaluating which companies are security risks and which aren't.

 Beijing will see the latest US moves to keep Huawei out of its markets as discriminatory - and could make it harder for American companies to get licences to operate in China, target the buying of American products as being anti-patriotic, and hold up goods at ports and customs.

 Expect more American firms to see renewed scrutiny whilst investing in China.


BBC VIDEO HERE  https://www.bbc.com/news/business-48290733

Will a trade deal end US-China rivalry?

China has consistently said it doesn't want to fight - it says it's being forced into a corner by the US.

 In fact even if you drill down into the $60bn-worth of US goods that Beijing raised tariffs on this week in retaliation, the scale of the tariff increase is less than what's being reported, according to Vinesh Motwani of Silk Road Research.

 In December China suspended retaliatory tariffs on vehicles and auto parts, and that suspension has remained in place.

 Analysts say this signals that Beijing wants to show some good faith in the lead up to the meeting between the two leaders at the G20 in Japan in June.

 Still, Sun Tzu's Art of War prescribes: "Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt."

 Perhaps - if those talks in June don't go well - China is leaving room for itself to apply further pressure in the future.





 
 

 

5/16/2019 10:27 pm  #2


Re: tRUMP's trade war with China... Should we be worried ??

China has 84% of our GDP
China has 23% of our debt. 
China has no deficit. 

They can outlast us, if it comes to that. 
They can implement all Vaswani's listed methods. But there is one Chinese asset unmentioned: Chinese society, full of resolve, self discipline, hunger for accomplishment, and family honor. 

Too many Americans live a life of lazy lie, and follow an elected liar with no apparent concern about ultimate cost of belief in his lies. They spent years making up every like imaginable about Obama to make him look as bad as they wanted him to be, and they see nothing wrong with Trump who lies to them almost all the time. 

Trump, and only Trump is responsible for this "trade war." He doesn't know what he is doing. He is trying to be the big man and throw his weight around. China saw and called his bluff. Trump does his best to hide his bluff from his base. He's bluffing. China isn't. 

At a press response the other day I watched about the Mueller Investigation, in two and a half minutes I counted 44 Trump lies. 

 


You can look away from a painting, but you can't listen away from a symphony
 

5/17/2019 6:31 pm  #3


Re: tRUMP's trade war with China... Should we be worried ??

I agree with you.  He is clueless  and he's hurting this country big time.

     Thread Starter
 

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